Pre In-Vivo Initial assessment — February 2026
Updated — Post In-Vivo Proof of Concept publication (March 2026)
£5M investment — 5-year projected returns
Investment
£5M
Entry ownership
~29%
Post-dilution (yr 5)
~20–22%
Expected value
£7–13M
Gross value of £5M stake by scenario
Total loss (40–50%)
Conservative (25–30%)
Base case (15–20%)
Optimistic (5–10%)
Conservative
StatusPhase 1 complete
Valuation£60–100M
Stake value£11–22M
Multiple2.2–4.4x
Probability25–30%
Base case
StatusPhase 2a data
Valuation£150–250M
Stake value£26–55M
Multiple5.2–11x
Probability15–20%
Optimistic
StatusDeal signed
Valuation£250–400M+
Stake value£38–80M
Multiple7.5–16x
Probability5–10%
Probability distribution
Total loss 45%
Conservative 27%
Base 18%
Bull 10%
The 40–50% probability of total loss is not pessimism — it is the documented base rate for preclinical biotech programmes. The proven GalNAc-siRNA platform partially de-risks delivery, but the core biology (C/EBPβ silencing restoring liver function in humans) is unvalidated at this stage. This is a portfolio bet, not a single-position wager.
Updated — Post In-Vivo Proof of Concept publication (March 2026)
£5M investment — revised 5-year projected returns
Investment
£5M
Post-dilution (yr 5)
~20–22%
Expected value
£10–18M
↑ was £7–13M
Loss probability
25–35%
↓ was 40–50%
Original vs revised: gross value of £5M stake by scenario
Original estimate
Revised (post-publication)
Conservative
StatusPhase 2a enrolling
Valuation£80–150M
Stake value£14–33M
Multiple2.8–6.6x
Probability25–30%
Base case
StatusPhase 2a data; deal
Valuation£175–300M
Stake value£30–66M
Multiple6–13.2x
Probability20–25%
Optimistic
StatusDeal closed
Valuation£300–500M+
Stake value£45–100M
Multiple9–20x
Probability10–15%
Revised probability distribution
Loss 30%
Conservative 27%
Base 23%
Bull 12%
Original probability distribution
Loss 45%
Conservative 27%
Base 18%
Bull 10%
Key risk transitions
Resolved
In vivo target biology validation
GalNAc-siCEBPB reverses MASLD in mouse model
Resolved
Delivery modality confirmation
GalNAc-siRNA in vivo efficacy demonstrated
Remaining
Human translation
Mouse MASLD → human cirrhosis gap
Remaining
ASGPR in cirrhotic liver
Reduced receptor density may limit delivery
The published in vivo PoC data shifts approximately 15 percentage points of probability mass away from total loss and into the productive return scenarios. The expected value improves by ~40–50% (£10–18M vs £7–13M) — driven not by higher peak valuations, but by a fundamentally higher probability of reaching those valuations.